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People in the US: what is your personal ‘recession indicator’?

·The Guardian·Impact 2/5 · Moderate

According to a new Harris Poll, nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the US is in a recession. This perception is despite the fact that the country's economic growth has not yet met the traditional definition of a recession, which requires two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The widespread feeling of a downturn among Americans is likely due to higher prices and a stagnant job market, which can be unsettling for many people. This sentiment may have implications for consumer spending and overall economic confidence.

Read the source report: The Guardian →

Why it matters

Many Americans think the US is in a recession, which could impact consumer spending and market confidence. A recession would have significant effects on the economy and markets, potentially leading to a downturn in various sectors.

Market impact

Impact score
2 / 5
Market signal
Negative / risk-off
Category
Market moves
Model confidence
55%

Markets & countries in focus

United States

Transmission channels

Recession fears→Consumer spending slows→Market confidence falls→Risk appetite decreases→Safe-haven assets rise

Likely winners & losers

Winners

  • Bonds
  • Safe-haven assets

Under pressure

  • Stocks
  • Consumer discretionary

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MeridStreet does not reproduce source articles. The summary and analysis above are generated by MeridStreet from public headlines and its own market model; the original reporting belongs to The Guardian. For information only — not financial advice.