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MONETARY POLICY

Interest rates unlikely to reach 4.75% by next summer, say City economists

·The Guardian·Impact 3/5 · Notable

City economists believe that UK interest rates are unlikely to reach 4.75% by next summer, as predicted by financial markets. This is because the Bank of England may not increase rates by a full percentage point, contrary to market expectations. The experts think that the Bank of England could lower interest rates by the end of 2027, which would be a significant shift in monetary policy. This change in expectations could have a notable impact on the economy and financial markets.

Read the source report: The Guardian →

Why it matters

The Bank of England may not increase rates as much as expected, and could even lower them by the end of 2027. This is because City economists believe the economy will not support higher rates, and the Bank will prioritize growth over inflation control.

Market impact

Impact score
3 / 5
Market signal
Positive / risk-on
Category
Monetary policy
Model confidence
65%

Transmission channels

Lower rate hike expectations→Increased bond demand→Higher bond prices→Lower yields→Boost to UK equities

Likely winners & losers

Winners

  • Bonds
  • Gilts
  • UK equities

Under pressure

  • Pound
  • Savers

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MeridStreet does not reproduce source articles. The summary and analysis above are generated by MeridStreet from public headlines and its own market model; the original reporting belongs to The Guardian. For information only — not financial advice.